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In my corporate days I shared a cubicle wall with a guy from marketing. He would wander in a few hours after I started work, say his hellos, and occasionally try to recruit me for some sort of pyramid scheme involving artificial gems. After he made his presence known in the office, he would take some documents in his arms and head down the hallway, down the stairs, through the lobby, across the parking lot, into his car, and all the way home. He lived near work, and he'd stay home all day under the cover story of being in meetings.

A few years later I learned that he went on a drinking and drug binge, got in a fight with a buddy in a hotel room, and strangled the fellow with his belt. My coworker went to prison and wrote a book about his experience. It was a good book. He alleged that the victim was a big guy and it wasn't easy to kill him. The relatives of the victim allege that the deceased was about the size of a lawn jockey. I don't know the truth, but I do know that my coworker had a background in marketing not karate.

So who was your worst coworker?
 
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Years ago a suit salesman gave me a tip that has always stuck with me. He said that people won't notice you're bald if you keep yourself very fit. He was a good example of this. I literally hadn't noticed he was bald until he made the comment. My first impression of him had been dominated by the fact he was so obviously fit. It was a brilliant case of misdirection. And it made me think about all the ways people mitigate their bad luck.

Generally speaking, a high level of fitness can compensate for whatever imperfect genes your parents gave you. Fitness is enough to achieve good looks if you bother to dress well, take care of your skin, and get a good haircut.

And fitness, along with a good diet, can also suppress the most common killer diseases that your genes might predispose you to. You can't prevent bad luck, but you can keep it at bay.

If you have the bad luck to be born to a poor family, education can compensate for that. Some schools are better than others, but almost all of them, at least in developed countries, will get you where you need to go.

If you're unlucky in love or business, your degree of effort can compensate for that. In both cases it's a numbers game. If you keep trying, you're bound to get lucky eventually. You just have to be willing to move on to the next attempt, and learn from your failures.

If you boil it all down, the only types of pure bad luck are the truly random disasters such as being struck by lightning, or being born without the gene for optimism. Optimism is what gives you the willingness to stay fit, eat healthy, and keep trying. You wouldn't do those things unless you expected them to work.

So suppose science finds the gene that controls optimism. And suppose it can be manipulated. That would be enough to solve the healthcare problem and boost the economy. People would get fit, avoiding medical costs, and they'd work extra hard because they believed it would pay off in the long run, thus fixing the economy.

The optimism gene is probably the most important one in the universe. Someday we'll find it. That will be interesting.
 
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The best quote I've seen lately about white collar work comes from commenter Webster:

"The white collar sector is all about no activity punctuated occasionally by useless activities."

I laughed for five minutes after reading that.
 
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I saw an interview with Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, & Co. He said his company responded to the public outrage about executive compensation by converting a greater percentage of executive pay from base salary into stock incentives.

It all sounded reasonable until I remembered that their current stock price is about half of its previous high. So depending how those stock options are priced, the executives stand to reap huge rewards for doing nothing but showing up for work while the overall economy rights itself. And the best part is that they're selling this concept as a sacrifice. It's all very Dogbertian.

This reminds me why my first career direction out of college was banking. I wanted to learn how to pat someone on the back and rifle through his wallet at the same time. Unfortunately my banking career ended when my boss called me in her office and explained that the media was giving our bank a hard time for having so few women or minorities in senior management. She explained that promoting me would just make things worse. So I jumped ship to work for the local phone company, and finished my MBA a night, only to get the identical message from my new boss. Once it became inescapably clear that my efforts and my rewards were not linked, I became a cartoonist. It was the only job I could imagine where absurdity was compensated.
 
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As you know, traditional newspapers of the dead tree variety are falling victim to the Internet. Most newspapers have an Internet presence themselves, but they don't generate enough in the way of advertising dollars. And once a local paper is online, it competes with every newspaper in the world. Their only competitive advantage is local news, and so far that doesn't seem to be enough.

My solution is what I will call super-local news. It's not just news about your community, but also about your homeowner's association, your apartment building, your kids' classrooms, and the sports teams they belong to. Every family would have their own online local newspaper, assembled electronically every day based on that family's log-in information. Your personal and super-local news would include everything from world events to school lunch menus for that day. Eventually it might even include your child's report card. Obviously the schools have to be partners in this, and I think that could happen. Most school information is online already or heading in that direction. It just needs to feed to the newspaper's site for aggregation.

The key is for the super-local information to come to the newspapers from volunteers. For example, every youth sport team would have a parent with a digital camera and the willingness to upload some pictures and write a few lines about the game. A simple user interface would make it easy to integrate the news about little Becky's soccer game with news of the Lakers. They would have equal billing.

The key is to get kids interested in the online version of the super-local news. Kids care about themselves more than they care about anything else in the world. So the super-local news has to have lots of content about classrooms, Cub Scout meetings, local movies listings rated less then R, and that sort of thing.

Parents could even have the ability to manipulate their super-local newspaper and add birthday pictures, for example, and forward that day's paper to grandparents and friends.

With this concept the local newspaper extends their business model to include working with schools and youth sports teams to make sure there is a steady stream of family-oriented news in addition to world and local stuff. Once you have kids reading newspapers, the potential for advertising is much greater.

Another great service the super-local news could serve is organizing a family's schedule. Imagine if your family could add its appointments, test dates, assignment deadlines, and invitations to the super-local news so everyone in the family can see it. This would be made easier by allowing families to select what sports teams and classrooms apply to their kids so all of that schedule information populates the calendar automatically.

Done right, the super local newspaper could start capturing the business of evite.com by offering a feature to allow invitations to flow into the family's online calendar. And it could capture the Shutterfly.com business by allowing you to share pictures in a newspaper format, which could be amusing when you add your own headlines, and share them with friends.

Local newspapers wouldn't have the resources to develop the software to make this work, so I imagine the technology being developed by Google, for example, and managed by the local news folks. It would be a big job keeping the school and other super-local information flowing. And of course selling to local advertisers is best done in person.

And of course the news would have lots of Dilbert comics.

[Update: For all the people who mentioned Facebook, or RSS feeds, or other services, you're confusing the technology with the business model. -- Scott]
 
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Almost everything you do in your personal life is useful, even if it's just relaxing or spending time with your family. But if you have a white collar job, almost everything you do for your so-called work will end up being a waste of time in the long run. Obviously if you are a carpenter, most of your nails serve a good purpose. But white collar jobs are mostly about wasting time, with the hope that sometimes, rarely, something good will happen.

If you have a white collar job, leave a comment telling me two things:
  • (1) What is the next WORK item you expect to do.
  • (2) Tell me why it's probably going to be a waste of time.

Resist the urge to say "Eat a donut" or "read Dilbert comics." Tell me the actual work item and why it probably makes no difference in the long run.

This will either be sad or funny. I'm not sure.

[My blogging software doesn't allow me to do numbered lists that don't look stupid.]

 
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There's a machine at the gym where you lie on your stomach and lift a weighted lever by your ankles until your feet are near your buttocks. It works a major muscle in the backs of your legs, which I think is called the biceps femoris. A funny thing happens when I do that exercise: I feel a distinct euphoria. Call it a high if you will. No other weight machine gives me that same feeling.

Now combine this with my observation that people who are addicted to apparently boring sports such as swimming or running tend to have extra large biceps femoris and you have my newest hypothesis: Could the euphoric feeling that comes from working that particular muscle be the reason some people need to run ten miles a day?

Obviously people who exercise a lot will have larger muscles than people who don't. And it's no big secret that exercise makes people feel better in a number of ways. All I'm adding to the mix is the thought that perhaps that particular muscle is more responsible for athletic addiction than others.

I think you'd find that addictive sports are either intellectually challenging (golf, baseball, etc.), or they work the biceps femoris muscle, such as running, biking, and swimming.

I recently joined an indoor soccer team. It exercises the biceps femoris muscles, but it also requires a lot of thinking to make the right passes and plays. Indoor soccer is a fast game, mentally and physically, because you're never far from the ball. My theory predicts that this would be more addictive than most sports. I can attest that it is in fact insanely addicting. I've never experienced anything quite like it. I can see why soccer is the most popular sport in the solar system.

I wonder if the world would be a nicer place if everyone exercised their biceps femoris muscles and experienced its euphoria. A sentence you never hear on the news is "He was a marathon runner and a serial killer."
 
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About a week ago it occurred to me that I could probably double my net worth without increasing my risk. But I wasn't willing to pull the trigger because even though I could identify no risk, maybe I was missing something. It turns out that my plan would have worked, but I waited too long and probably missed window.

The investment idea was this: Sell most of my municipal bonds and buy stock in Wells Fargo bank. This was before the recent run-up in the stock market. The reason this seemed like a risk-free investment is that there were only two real possibilities for the future. Either the banks would become healthy, through government action or market forces, in which cases their stock would zoom, or the entire world would plunge into darkness and no investment would be worth anything.

Generally when you make an investment choice there is an opportunity cost. You always have to wonder if the investment you didn't make would have been better than the one you made. But in the case of banks last week, either they would go up in value, probably by a lot, or the entire economy would collapse and no investment would have value. So while there was a huge risk to investments in general, there was no risk in moving money into Wells Fargo stock. It was all upside potential with no additional risk.

I wonder if there has ever been a time when such a clear investment choice existed.
 
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In a recent post I claimed you only need to know about twelve concepts in a given field to look like an expert compared to someone who only knows two or three concepts. A reader asked me to list the dozen concepts for building an energy-efficient house. I will take that challenge and list them here, compiled from my own research. Actually, I will list more than twelve for extra credit.

One caveat is that this list applies to a Northern California climate where air conditioning is more important than heating. Here's the list. My blog interface doesn't allow them to be numbered:


  1. The Roof and windows are far more important to insulating the house than the walls. Your walls won't be the weakest link, and you don't need any exotic insulation type.

  1. A radiant barrier for the roof is one of the best ways to keep heat from entering the house.

  1. Windows are rated for their thermal efficiency. It makes a big difference if you get the most efficient ones.

  1. Clay tiles, with lighter colors, are the best choice to reduce heat.

  1. Common wisdom says an attic fan is great for removing heat. A better approach is to design the home so there is a natural chimney effect, taking advantage of the fact that hot air rises. All you need is a ground floor window you can open on the cool side of the house that has metal bars (for security) and a screen (for bugs). Then open an upstairs window and the air will circulate up and out without a fan.

  1. Orient the house so there are relatively few windows on the hot western exposure. Shade the windows on the hot side of the house with trees that lose leaves in the winter, or shade the windows with a porch.

  1. Add plenty of thermal mass inside the home to act as a natural heat regulator. That means concrete, stone, and tile.

  1. Add solar panels, tied into the electrical grid. With rebates, and the cost wrapped into the mortgage, they are cash positive from day one. If you retrofit later, and they are not part of the mortgage, the payback takes maybe 20 years.

  1. Water heating is a big component of your energy bill, but no expert can tell you the best solution. Common wisdom says tankless water heaters are best. But you might need a bunch of them, and they require maintenance. Some experts say continuous circulating water heaters are now nearly as efficient as tankless, without the maintenance hassle. New gas condensing types are just hitting the market, with even greater efficiency, but they don't have a track record.

  1. If you talk to ten experts in this field, you will get ten different opinions for your home. Although rules of thumb are mostly consistent, every house is different, and without detailed engineering, which is impractical, there is still a lot of guessing.

  1. Gas is cheaper than electricity.

  1. Use Energy Star certified appliances when possible.

  1. Keep your ductwork sealed (you can test for that), and insulated, and within the insulated envelope of the house as opposed to in a hot attic or cold basement.

  1. Keep your AC compressor and condenser on the shady side of the house. It makes a big difference.

  1. Take steps to reduce humidity inside the house to make it more comfortable during hot weather. For example, don't have houseplants, and use your bathroom exhaust fan when showering.

  1. In this climate, assuming you insulated properly and managed the sun exposure, your best choice for a heating unit is a standard forced air type, engineered so it isn't too big for the job. The more exotic heating solutions such as geothermal only make sense in more extreme climates.

  1. Small houses are more energy efficient than big houses. Duh.

  1. Use LED or compact fluorescent lighting when practical.

Your first impression of this list is that it's mostly obvious stuff and you assume builders are doing it already. But I am writing this from my office inside a newish townhouse (six years old) that violated most of the concepts on the list. All I have going for me is Energy Star appliances, compact fluorescent lights,  and no house plants.

If you remember these concepts, you will know more about home energy efficiency than 99.99% of the general public. You may commence acting smug.

 
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I call it the Rule of Twelve, and it states that if you know twelve concepts about a given topic you will look like an expert to people who only know two or three. If you learn more than twelve concepts about a topic, the value of each additional one drops off considerably.

Allow me to be the first to confess that twelve is not a magic and inviolable number. It just sounds better than The Rule of Several, Give or Take Two or Three, With Lots of Exceptions. So don't get hung up on the number twelve.

The power of this rule is that seemingly impenetrable topics are less intimidating if you know there are only a dozen concepts to learn. And often the details of a subject are unimportant if you know the big concepts. Let me give you an example.

As I've mentioned, my wife and I are in the process of building a house. One of our goals was to make it as energy efficient as practical, while still having the features we wanted. And that meant learning the twelve-or-so concepts of green building that would get us where we wanted to go. Those concepts aren't neatly listed anywhere, so you have to flail around until you scare them up. For example, I spent a huge amount of time trying to figure out the best type of insulation for the walls. I looked at everything from SIPS to hippy ideas about hay and compressed dirt, to blown-in cellulose, to standard batting. And it seemed no one could give me a definitive answer on what R-value was best for a home in my area. Big developers used whatever was cheapest and met code, because they didn't have to pay the utility bills after their homes where sold. And every individual home builder and owner seemed to have his own theory on insulation type.

Eventually we talked to some engineers who explained some of the twelve concepts to us, and that made the decision easy. It turns out that in my climate, no matter how you insulate the walls, it's the windows and roof that will determine (mostly) how much heat penetrates your house. There was never a need to learn about exotic wall insulation methods. We just had to make sure we knew the twelve concepts about windows, roofs, thermal mass, orientation to the sun, chimney effect, and a few other concepts more important than wall insulation.

If someone is explaining a subject to you by listing lots of facts and examples, without explaining any of the twelve concepts, you probably aren't learning anything useful.
 
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