Decisions With Incomplete Knowledge
Oct 27, 2009 General Nonsense |
Yesterday I made dozens of decisions, on topics as varied as Dilbert licensing, landscape design, marketing, and investing. In all cases I was operating with incomplete information, which is typical. As a practical matter, most decisions happen without the benefit of all the data you would like.
It made me reflect on all of the little rules one develops over the years for handling decisions without the benefit of sufficient data. You always start with the easy questions, such as...
What questions would you add to the list?
It made me reflect on all of the little rules one develops over the years for handling decisions without the benefit of sufficient data. You always start with the easy questions, such as...
- What do the experts say you should do?
- How much experience do the experts have with this question?
- Does the expert have a conflict of interest?
- What's the worst thing that could happen?
- How easy is it to switch course if you choose wrong?
- What information can you find on the Internet?
- Who has made this choice before? Were they satisfied?
- If I delay, will I learn something more that is useful?
- Is there a way to do a limited test?
- Does the decision make logical and mathematical sense?
- Do the experts make this choice with their own money?
- What do the well-informed people in my situation usually do?
- What does the competing vendor say about this vendor?
- Have I seen all of the alternatives?
- Does this situation follow a pattern I've seen in scams?
- Is someone giving answers that seem intentionally vague?
- Is information conspicuously missing?
- Is someone trying to rush me?
- Could someone unscrupulous easily take advantage of me?
- Have I regretted this sort of decision before?
- How do I imagine other people will react to this decision?
- If the expert is so smart, why isn't he rich?
What questions would you add to the list?
Votes: +7
Comments
User Name: jacklang0001
Nov 22, 2009
0
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User Name: tbrianjones
Nov 13, 2009
+1
Hello Scott,
I have a deep understanding of your frustration. I used to be a manufacturing engineer and now run a startup called Industrial Interface.
I stared this company because of the incredible frustration I faced when sourcing industrial products and services. The manufacturing industry is even worse than the consumer industry.
We've created a service that works exactly as you've described. Engineers post the technical specifications of their projects, and our technology identifies and contacts the most relevant suppliers. They are the experts with their products and services, so they review these leads that we deliver right to their inbox, and then pay us to contact the engineer if they sell what the engineer needs.
I believe that we've created the quickest, easiest, and most efficient way for engineers to source solutions for their designs, and our users are starting to confirm this. I've always said that this model should be used to "fix" sales throughout every industry. The model is sound and we're a new startup that is starting to generate revenue.
I thought you'd like to hear about a company that is already doing what you suggested. I'd love to hear your input, and if you really want to get ambitious, we are starting to gain some real traction and are looking for a seed investor. We're all young engineers by the way, and working with us will absolutely give you some fresh material for the Dilbert Strip. We're huge nerds, and all quit our engineering jobs to start Industrial Interface because cubicles were killing us.
I'm not looking for link bait because I know links don't become hyperlinks on your site anyway, but if you're interested, you can visit our site here (http://industrialinterface.com) or read about our progress thus far in our most recent press release (http://industrialinterface.com/blog/2009/11/11/industrialinterface-com-automates-industrial-sourcing-allows-engineers-to-focus-efforts-on-their-designs/)
I regularly read your blog Scott and I do enjoy it. Have a great weekend.
T. Brian Jones
President & Founder, Industrial Interface
I have a deep understanding of your frustration. I used to be a manufacturing engineer and now run a startup called Industrial Interface.
I stared this company because of the incredible frustration I faced when sourcing industrial products and services. The manufacturing industry is even worse than the consumer industry.
We've created a service that works exactly as you've described. Engineers post the technical specifications of their projects, and our technology identifies and contacts the most relevant suppliers. They are the experts with their products and services, so they review these leads that we deliver right to their inbox, and then pay us to contact the engineer if they sell what the engineer needs.
I believe that we've created the quickest, easiest, and most efficient way for engineers to source solutions for their designs, and our users are starting to confirm this. I've always said that this model should be used to "fix" sales throughout every industry. The model is sound and we're a new startup that is starting to generate revenue.
I thought you'd like to hear about a company that is already doing what you suggested. I'd love to hear your input, and if you really want to get ambitious, we are starting to gain some real traction and are looking for a seed investor. We're all young engineers by the way, and working with us will absolutely give you some fresh material for the Dilbert Strip. We're huge nerds, and all quit our engineering jobs to start Industrial Interface because cubicles were killing us.
I'm not looking for link bait because I know links don't become hyperlinks on your site anyway, but if you're interested, you can visit our site here (http://industrialinterface.com) or read about our progress thus far in our most recent press release (http://industrialinterface.com/blog/2009/11/11/industrialinterface-com-automates-industrial-sourcing-allows-engineers-to-focus-efforts-on-their-designs/)
I regularly read your blog Scott and I do enjoy it. Have a great weekend.
T. Brian Jones
President & Founder, Industrial Interface
User Name: tbrianjones
Nov 13, 2009
0
Hello Scott,
I have a deep understanding of your frustration. I used to be a manufacturing engineer and now run a startup called Industrial Interface.
I stared this company because of the incredible frustration I faced when sourcing industrial products and services. The manufacturing industry is even worse than the consumer industry.
We've created a service that works exactly as you've described. Engineers post the technical specifications of their projects, and our technology identifies and contacts the most relevant suppliers. They are the experts with their products and services, so they review these leads that we deliver right to their inbox, and then pay us to contact the engineer if they sell what the engineer needs.
I believe that we've created the quickest, easiest, and most efficient way for engineers to source solutions for their designs, and our users are starting to confirm this. I've always said that this model should be used to "fix" sales throughout every industry. The model is sound and we're a new startup that is starting to generate revenue.
I thought you'd like to hear about a company that is already doing what you suggested. I'd love to hear your input, and if you really want to get ambitious, we are starting to gain some real traction and are looking for a seed investor. We're all young engineers by the way, and working with us will absolutely give you some fresh material for the Dilbert Strip. We're huge nerds, and all quit our engineering jobs to start Industrial Interface because cubicles were killing us.
I'm not looking for link bait because I know links don't become hyperlinks on your site anyway, but if you're interested, you can visit our site here (http://industrialinterface.com) or read about our progress thus far in our most recent press release (http://industrialinterface.com/blog/2009/11/11/industrialinterface-com-automates-industrial-sourcing-allows-engineers-to-focus-efforts-on-their-designs/)
I regularly read your blog Scott and I do enjoy it. Have a great weekend.
T. Brian Jones
President & Founder, Industrial Interface
I have a deep understanding of your frustration. I used to be a manufacturing engineer and now run a startup called Industrial Interface.
I stared this company because of the incredible frustration I faced when sourcing industrial products and services. The manufacturing industry is even worse than the consumer industry.
We've created a service that works exactly as you've described. Engineers post the technical specifications of their projects, and our technology identifies and contacts the most relevant suppliers. They are the experts with their products and services, so they review these leads that we deliver right to their inbox, and then pay us to contact the engineer if they sell what the engineer needs.
I believe that we've created the quickest, easiest, and most efficient way for engineers to source solutions for their designs, and our users are starting to confirm this. I've always said that this model should be used to "fix" sales throughout every industry. The model is sound and we're a new startup that is starting to generate revenue.
I thought you'd like to hear about a company that is already doing what you suggested. I'd love to hear your input, and if you really want to get ambitious, we are starting to gain some real traction and are looking for a seed investor. We're all young engineers by the way, and working with us will absolutely give you some fresh material for the Dilbert Strip. We're huge nerds, and all quit our engineering jobs to start Industrial Interface because cubicles were killing us.
I'm not looking for link bait because I know links don't become hyperlinks on your site anyway, but if you're interested, you can visit our site here (http://industrialinterface.com) or read about our progress thus far in our most recent press release (http://industrialinterface.com/blog/2009/11/11/industrialinterface-com-automates-industrial-sourcing-allows-engineers-to-focus-efforts-on-their-designs/)
I regularly read your blog Scott and I do enjoy it. Have a great weekend.
T. Brian Jones
President & Founder, Industrial Interface
User Name: tomas
Nov 3, 2009
0
This recent news scientist article should be relevant for this question and well worth a read:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427321.000-clever-fools-why-a-high-iq-doesnt-mean-youre-smart.html?page=1
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427321.000-clever-fools-why-a-high-iq-doesnt-mean-youre-smart.html?page=1
User Name: tartanmarine
Oct 29, 2009
0
User Name: marcaxp
Oct 29, 2009
0
Scott, can you define the difference between being influenced by your fears and biases and your keen intuition?
I think they are the same thing, which makes the exercise moot. However, a quick trap check is always a good idea. I bet the biggest fish in the ocean get that way because they were caught and released when they were too small to keep. They quickly stop the "ooooh shiny" or "odd to see a small fish here" thoughts. Call it what you want, fear or bias or intuition, but stop worrying about where it comes from and get on with sniffing out the trap.
I think they are the same thing, which makes the exercise moot. However, a quick trap check is always a good idea. I bet the biggest fish in the ocean get that way because they were caught and released when they were too small to keep. They quickly stop the "ooooh shiny" or "odd to see a small fish here" thoughts. Call it what you want, fear or bias or intuition, but stop worrying about where it comes from and get on with sniffing out the trap.
User Name: marcaxp
Oct 29, 2009
0
Scott, can you define the difference between being influenced by your fears and biases and your keen intuition?
I think they are the same thing, which makes the exercise moot. However, a quick trap check is always a good idea. I bet the biggest fish in the ocean get that way because they were caught and released when they were too small to keep. They quickly stop the "ooooh shiny" or "odd to see a small fish here" thoughts. Call it what you want, fear or bias or intuition, but stop worrying about where it comes from and get on with sniffing out the trap.
I think they are the same thing, which makes the exercise moot. However, a quick trap check is always a good idea. I bet the biggest fish in the ocean get that way because they were caught and released when they were too small to keep. They quickly stop the "ooooh shiny" or "odd to see a small fish here" thoughts. Call it what you want, fear or bias or intuition, but stop worrying about where it comes from and get on with sniffing out the trap.
User Name: marcaxp
Oct 29, 2009
0
Scott, can you define the difference between being influenced by your fears and biases and your keen intuition?
I think they are the same thing, which makes the exercise moot. However, a quick trap check is always a good idea. I bet the biggest fish in the ocean get that way because they were caught and released when they were too small to keep. They quickly stop the "ooooh shiny" or "odd to see a small fish here" thoughts. Call it what you want, fear or bias or intuition, but stop worrying about where it comes from and get on with sniffing out the trap.
I think they are the same thing, which makes the exercise moot. However, a quick trap check is always a good idea. I bet the biggest fish in the ocean get that way because they were caught and released when they were too small to keep. They quickly stop the "ooooh shiny" or "odd to see a small fish here" thoughts. Call it what you want, fear or bias or intuition, but stop worrying about where it comes from and get on with sniffing out the trap.
User Name: himanshu9813
Oct 29, 2009
0
very good..........finally you achieved a numbered list on your blog software....
User Name: d4d
Oct 28, 2009
0
An expert is a guy from out of town who you must tell whats going on and what to do about it. The boss will not belive you.
User Name: arbyisme
Oct 28, 2009
0
Sometimes ask the salesperson, what would they recommend their Mother do if she was in this situation? They still could give a selfserving and biased answer. But at least they think about it a little more knowing they will be sitting across the Thanksgiving dinner table with her for the forseeable future.
User Name: shirtbloke
Oct 28, 2009
-1
Why is this person offering me the Earth,
For no money upfront?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd's_of_London#Asbestosis
For no money upfront?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd's_of_London#Asbestosis
User Name: soulcatcher
Oct 28, 2009
0
If I was sleeping on the ground floor I'd be asking myself...am I going to wake up with a car on top of me?
User Name: WillJohnston
Oct 28, 2009
+1
If this goes wrong can I blame it on someone else?
Is there a legal loophole I can exploit?
What would it take to cover this up?
How good is my lawyer?
Would my wife find out?
I think this covers most of the important stuff.
Is there a legal loophole I can exploit?
What would it take to cover this up?
How good is my lawyer?
Would my wife find out?
I think this covers most of the important stuff.
User Name: Nydhogg
Oct 28, 2009
0
Sorry about those wierd non-bullets in my previous post, they looked like bullets when I posted them.
And I meant to post this all purpose discriminator some time ago. I'm reluctant to give it away, but maybe I'll become a Web Hero. Right :-)
Ask yourself: Do a small number of people stand to make a lot of money if something happens, or doesn't happen?
(And just to spell it out, if the answer is yes, then that something is much more likely to happen or not happen!)
Rocky
And I meant to post this all purpose discriminator some time ago. I'm reluctant to give it away, but maybe I'll become a Web Hero. Right :-)
Ask yourself: Do a small number of people stand to make a lot of money if something happens, or doesn't happen?
(And just to spell it out, if the answer is yes, then that something is much more likely to happen or not happen!)
Rocky
User Name: Nydhogg
Oct 28, 2009
0
Scott,
Good list. I hope you'll update it with the best from your replies for us.
Here's a list I put together some time ago for stocks that may have a couple of useful items:
Buying
• Are its fundamentals sound?
• Is it in dividend limbo?
• Does it pay good dividends?
• Might it pay special dividends?
• Is there a buy-back plan?
• Is it off it’s peak price? How does the price curve look?
• Is it recommended by S&P and other raters?
• Is it relatively non-volatile?
• Is its fair value well above its price?
• Is its future sound?
• Is the PE ratio sensible?
• Is the analysis different in an IRA?
Selling
• Was it Bought for a Reason ? Has it met that objective ?
• Do I Need the Money ?
• Is it in Dividend limbo?
• Good Reason to Sell? Or might it be better to keep ?
- 1. Up and likely to go down - take gain
- 2. Up and stable and doesn’t pay dividends - take gain
- 3. Actually need the money - take gain (or loss)
- 4. Down and unlikely to come back - take loss
• Has it gone Long Term ?
• Is a Dividend imminent ? Is it paying good dividends ?
• Is a special dividend possible ?
• Is there something better to put the money in ?
• Sell Part ?
• Tax Consequences ? Favorable?
• Is the analysis different in an IRA?
Rocky
Good list. I hope you'll update it with the best from your replies for us.
Here's a list I put together some time ago for stocks that may have a couple of useful items:
Buying
• Are its fundamentals sound?
• Is it in dividend limbo?
• Does it pay good dividends?
• Might it pay special dividends?
• Is there a buy-back plan?
• Is it off it’s peak price? How does the price curve look?
• Is it recommended by S&P and other raters?
• Is it relatively non-volatile?
• Is its fair value well above its price?
• Is its future sound?
• Is the PE ratio sensible?
• Is the analysis different in an IRA?
Selling
• Was it Bought for a Reason ? Has it met that objective ?
• Do I Need the Money ?
• Is it in Dividend limbo?
• Good Reason to Sell? Or might it be better to keep ?
- 1. Up and likely to go down - take gain
- 2. Up and stable and doesn’t pay dividends - take gain
- 3. Actually need the money - take gain (or loss)
- 4. Down and unlikely to come back - take loss
• Has it gone Long Term ?
• Is a Dividend imminent ? Is it paying good dividends ?
• Is a special dividend possible ?
• Is there something better to put the money in ?
• Sell Part ?
• Tax Consequences ? Favorable?
• Is the analysis different in an IRA?
Rocky
User Name: dlex700
Oct 28, 2009
+3
"Am I overanalyzing this and spending too much time asking questions?"
User Name: auclair
Oct 27, 2009
0
