Puppet Masters Again
Nov 5, 2008 General Nonsense |
I was expecting stocks to rally sharply ahead of the election, and pull back when the results were announced. It looks like that prediction came true.
I based my prediction on the conspiracy theory that the market is controlled by a relatively small group of ultra rich people who preferred McCain for president. A phony surge in stocks ahead of the election might have convinced some people that the economic downturn was already on the mend, so no need for a change.
I have long suspected that all major movements in the markets are manipulated by billionaires who would like to become trillionaires. They know in advance which way the market will move, because they cause the movement, so they sell high and buy low while the unwashed masses are doing the opposite.
If you based your investing on the conspiracy theory that markets are manipulated by the rich, you would do very well, even if that theory is wrong. For example, you would have bought stocks every time the media told you the economy was doomed, and sold stocks whenever the market was testing new bubble highs, because you cynically believed all financial news was intentionally misleading.
Unfortunately it's psychologically hard to buy stocks when the economy is circling the drain (according to the media) and even harder to avoid investing when things look bubble-iscous. The way to get past that is to convince yourself the billionaires are manipulating all information about the economy in order to fool you. When the media says sell, it's time to buy. (Disclaimer: Do not get your investment advice from cartoonists.)
I based my prediction on the conspiracy theory that the market is controlled by a relatively small group of ultra rich people who preferred McCain for president. A phony surge in stocks ahead of the election might have convinced some people that the economic downturn was already on the mend, so no need for a change.
I have long suspected that all major movements in the markets are manipulated by billionaires who would like to become trillionaires. They know in advance which way the market will move, because they cause the movement, so they sell high and buy low while the unwashed masses are doing the opposite.
If you based your investing on the conspiracy theory that markets are manipulated by the rich, you would do very well, even if that theory is wrong. For example, you would have bought stocks every time the media told you the economy was doomed, and sold stocks whenever the market was testing new bubble highs, because you cynically believed all financial news was intentionally misleading.
Unfortunately it's psychologically hard to buy stocks when the economy is circling the drain (according to the media) and even harder to avoid investing when things look bubble-iscous. The way to get past that is to convince yourself the billionaires are manipulating all information about the economy in order to fool you. When the media says sell, it's time to buy. (Disclaimer: Do not get your investment advice from cartoonists.)
Votes: +7
Comments
User Name: bigcajunman
Nov 8, 2008
0
Never take investing advice from folks wearing fuzzy red hair, a fake red nose and honks twice for yes and once for no. That's the last time I go to "Citi Financial" for advice.
User Name: KevinKunreuther
Nov 8, 2008
0
I've been in hospital since mid day election day, so I'm just catching up.
Why did I know all this stuff already? Oh, yeah, right. Too bad I was too sick and weak to make a killing. As Stan on South Park would say, "oh crap!"
Why did I know all this stuff already? Oh, yeah, right. Too bad I was too sick and weak to make a killing. As Stan on South Park would say, "oh crap!"
User Name: brownd4d
Nov 8, 2008
0
NOT MINE, BUT RIGHT
We know that the money system is fake, the federal reserve is owned by a private corporation that prints the money out of nothing and owns over 70% of the stock market, basically what we're looking at here is a very, very small group of people that control everything, all the money, all the weapons, all the resources and all the media (about 118 people total own every media source in the entire world
We know that the money system is fake, the federal reserve is owned by a private corporation that prints the money out of nothing and owns over 70% of the stock market, basically what we're looking at here is a very, very small group of people that control everything, all the money, all the weapons, all the resources and all the media (about 118 people total own every media source in the entire world
User Name: brownd4d
Nov 8, 2008
0
Booms and Busts. The rich make money both ways. For a boom the Federal Reserve Bank (which is owned by bankers) drops interest. People invest their time and everything they own in making good. Then the Fed says "surprise ' and bump up interest rates.. . People lose everything they have and the rich (who made money selling what was needed and still have money) cherry pick what they want out of the wreck. And money fails into the hand of the banks owners. Who run the Fed.
User Name: RealityMonster
Nov 7, 2008
0
Apparently, the super-rich prefer Obama. They don't care about taxes, they care about general stability. These kinds of big downturns are more of a risk to them than high taxes are.
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2008/10/13/the-rich-support-mccain-the-super-rich-support-obama/
http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2008/10/13/the-rich-support-mccain-the-super-rich-support-obama/
User Name: Aardwizz
Nov 6, 2008
+1
While I agree with the general concept, and there is actually evidence of such "manipulation" by only one or two !$%*!$%* (although they are called "hedge funds", not "billionaires"), the theory breaks down on specifics.
Is today, the day after the DOW dropped 500 points (again) the bottom, or is there still more room for panic by the unwashed masses to drive it down further? If so, it would certainily be foolish to buy today what will be cheaper tomorrow.
The core question you should be asking yourself is - are you a Trader, or an Investor? The former looks at short-term gains, and tries to time the market. The latter ignores the market fluxuations, and looks for long-term growth. Each has it's own strategy as to when to buy and when to sell, but the stategies are often at odds with eachother.
Don't take financial advice from anonymous blog commenters either.
Is today, the day after the DOW dropped 500 points (again) the bottom, or is there still more room for panic by the unwashed masses to drive it down further? If so, it would certainily be foolish to buy today what will be cheaper tomorrow.
The core question you should be asking yourself is - are you a Trader, or an Investor? The former looks at short-term gains, and tries to time the market. The latter ignores the market fluxuations, and looks for long-term growth. Each has it's own strategy as to when to buy and when to sell, but the stategies are often at odds with eachother.
Don't take financial advice from anonymous blog commenters either.
User Name: OrionStyles
Nov 6, 2008
0
Buy low sell high. Sounds easy enough right? I wonder what would happen to the market if everyone bought stock only it crashed 500% and sold stock only after it went up 500%? Could the secret billionaire club do anything in this situation?
I mention this because the secret billionaire club doesn't really care about how much money they have, they care about what they own. Crashing the market and tricking people to sell in panic while they buy to own more is their best trick.
I mention this because the secret billionaire club doesn't really care about how much money they have, they care about what they own. Crashing the market and tricking people to sell in panic while they buy to own more is their best trick.
User Name: JCC723
Nov 6, 2008
0
How about the fact that the president elect has promised to raise capital gain taxes which results in investors selling now before the rates are raised.
User Name: Bilious Prudence
Nov 6, 2008
0
I for one am pleased with the result, and look forward to seeing whether the optimism of Obama's supporters was well-placed.
User Name: thompsonda
Nov 5, 2008
0
If you wish to listen to some particularly good offbeat Australian satire of the American election listen to the 'race race' at
http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/racerace/media.htm
Start at number 2 and listen to comparisons between Luther King's 'I have a dream' and Obama's 'I Like Pie' oratory. Genius.
Also listen to the mega mix at the end on No 8. A great summary of the election.
http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/racerace/media.htm
Start at number 2 and listen to comparisons between Luther King's 'I have a dream' and Obama's 'I Like Pie' oratory. Genius.
Also listen to the mega mix at the end on No 8. A great summary of the election.
User Name: gravitation
Nov 5, 2008
0
Scott, I agree with your conspiracy theory. The Govt. gave Wall Street everything they wanted, even our very own souls, and W.S. felt the need to reciprocate. Apparently it didn't work. Apparently the majority of people in this country aren't as dumb as the Govt. (and dare I say, ruling class?) would like them to be. Besides, we don't control the world anymore. The world thinks back. After today, my faith in my country and in the human race ( lost but returned) is renewed.
User Name: vit_r
Nov 5, 2008
0
Billioners prefer Obama. (For instance here http://redbluerichpoor.com/blog/?p=215 )
"Is this a real change, perhaps a move to a new era in which, at a national level, the upper middle class and rich are divided evenly between the two parties?"
On the other hand the ultra rich can cause the movement downwards to change the voters minds. In this case your theory works too.
"Is this a real change, perhaps a move to a new era in which, at a national level, the upper middle class and rich are divided evenly between the two parties?"
On the other hand the ultra rich can cause the movement downwards to change the voters minds. In this case your theory works too.
User Name: bbarber3
Nov 5, 2008
0
Correction: Do not get your investment advice from conspricy theorist.
Come on Scott. A different comspricy theory every day?? That's getting a little old.
Here's one for you. Now that Obama has been elected, expect (around Feb.) to start seeing alot of good economic news from the mainstream (i.e. liberal) media. I have a theory that the economy is driven more by the mood of consumers than by anything else. Hence, if the media reports are always gloomy then the economy will follow. For example, the last 2 years the news has continually reported gloom and doom, but the actual economy has only recently taken a downturn. When they start reporting only 'happy' news, the economy will follow and then they can gloat that they were right about Bush all along.
Come on Scott. A different comspricy theory every day?? That's getting a little old.
Here's one for you. Now that Obama has been elected, expect (around Feb.) to start seeing alot of good economic news from the mainstream (i.e. liberal) media. I have a theory that the economy is driven more by the mood of consumers than by anything else. Hence, if the media reports are always gloomy then the economy will follow. For example, the last 2 years the news has continually reported gloom and doom, but the actual economy has only recently taken a downturn. When they start reporting only 'happy' news, the economy will follow and then they can gloat that they were right about Bush all along.
User Name: bhengh
Nov 5, 2008
+2
It is ridiculous to think that there is a group that both manipulates the stock market and prefers McCain. The recent stock market crash is what gave Obama the edge in the end. Before that, McCain was almost even with Obama.
It is more probable that this "group" prefers Obama (although I personally doubt the conspiracy idea altogether).
It is more probable that this "group" prefers Obama (although I personally doubt the conspiracy idea altogether).
User Name: charlesfunnish
Nov 5, 2008
0
User Name: phb
Nov 5, 2008
0
Google "Behavioral Finance" and read all about your discovery...bla bla bla!
I like your conspiracy theory though. Categorized as things that make you say, "hmmm..."
Keep your market predictions coming and you'll soon be attracting money to invest and become one of those greedy bastards on Wall Street that everyone loves to hate. Call it the DIlbert Hedge Fund, hire some burned out Merrill jockey, slap up a web site and BAM, instant business plan! Would help offset losses in the restaurant business...food for thought, so to speak.
I like your conspiracy theory though. Categorized as things that make you say, "hmmm..."
Keep your market predictions coming and you'll soon be attracting money to invest and become one of those greedy bastards on Wall Street that everyone loves to hate. Call it the DIlbert Hedge Fund, hire some burned out Merrill jockey, slap up a web site and BAM, instant business plan! Would help offset losses in the restaurant business...food for thought, so to speak.
User Name: cpbrown1
Nov 5, 2008
+1
User Name: jakesdad
Nov 5, 2008
-1
I'll be interested to see if gas starts going back up...
I work w/a guy who swears that oil companies always lower prices in the weeks leading up to every election to help republicans - bear in mind that he's one of those that thinks if his kid gets a cold it's because Bush cut the CDC's budget so take it w/a grain of salt but we haven't seen $2 gas in years so if it goes back up to $3 in the coming weeks he might be on to something...
I work w/a guy who swears that oil companies always lower prices in the weeks leading up to every election to help republicans - bear in mind that he's one of those that thinks if his kid gets a cold it's because Bush cut the CDC's budget so take it w/a grain of salt but we haven't seen $2 gas in years so if it goes back up to $3 in the coming weeks he might be on to something...
User Name: tartanmarine
Nov 5, 2008
0
I'm surprised if the market is pulling back. Normally the market goes up no matter who is elected, because it removes uncertainty, which markets hate.
If it pulls back, it may reflect continued concern with the President-elect's anti-growth economic policies. My hope now is that his promise to raise trade barriers (he said he's call the President of Canada about changing NAFTA) and raise capital gains taxes, driving job-creating investment out of the market, were like his promise to accept public financing--just for consumption of the faithful. But I thought the investors would wait to see if he meant it based on legislation.
Assuming Bill Gates, George Soros and Warren Buffet are sitting around in a back room at Hooters deciding which way the market's going, I'm not sure I see how they gained from the bear market this year. Maybe they sold short and no one knows it, and the story of Buffet losing $9B in value is just a cover by the biased right-wing media. But that's a lot of short selling to hide.
BTW, Buffet says that when the market goes up, and people get greedy, he gets scared and bails. And when it goes down, and people get scared, he gets greedy and buys. Claims he's made a lot of money that way. Doesn't he owe Scott a cut for coming up with the idea?
If it pulls back, it may reflect continued concern with the President-elect's anti-growth economic policies. My hope now is that his promise to raise trade barriers (he said he's call the President of Canada about changing NAFTA) and raise capital gains taxes, driving job-creating investment out of the market, were like his promise to accept public financing--just for consumption of the faithful. But I thought the investors would wait to see if he meant it based on legislation.
Assuming Bill Gates, George Soros and Warren Buffet are sitting around in a back room at Hooters deciding which way the market's going, I'm not sure I see how they gained from the bear market this year. Maybe they sold short and no one knows it, and the story of Buffet losing $9B in value is just a cover by the biased right-wing media. But that's a lot of short selling to hide.
BTW, Buffet says that when the market goes up, and people get greedy, he gets scared and bails. And when it goes down, and people get scared, he gets greedy and buys. Claims he's made a lot of money that way. Doesn't he owe Scott a cut for coming up with the idea?
User Name: Drn24
Nov 5, 2008
+1
Scott, your comments are right on the money, and while most people just think it's true, there is actual evidence to support this theory. It's called the Federal Reserve, and it is the vehicle by which the banking elite control the economy. Did you know that the government borrows money from the Federal Reserve at interest, which it must pay back? This is surprising considering the Fed is supposed to be government controlled and holds all of our money not used by the Treasury. Now why would we need to pay ourselves back in interest? Because the Fed pays dividends to a group of shareholders and returns the rest to the treasury. Who are these shareholders? The Rothschilds of London and Berlin; Lazard Brothers of Paris; Israel Moses Seif of Italy; Kuhn, Loeb and Warburg of Germany; and the Lehman Brothers, Goldman, Sachs and the Rockefeller families of New York.
All of this is true, and you can verify it by going to Federal Reserve website and looking at the Annual Report. The list of shareholders requires a little more digging, but I assure you it is accurate.
The Fed is able to control the economy by setting interest rates and controlling the amount of lendable money in the system at any given time. And if the Fed is controlled by it's shareholders, then they can manipulate recession and boom cycles as easily as you change clothes. These are the real pirates of America.
All of this is true, and you can verify it by going to Federal Reserve website and looking at the Annual Report. The list of shareholders requires a little more digging, but I assure you it is accurate.
The Fed is able to control the economy by setting interest rates and controlling the amount of lendable money in the system at any given time. And if the Fed is controlled by it's shareholders, then they can manipulate recession and boom cycles as easily as you change clothes. These are the real pirates of America.
