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Back in March I predicted a 20% correction in the stock market sometime in 2013. I based the prediction on my hypothesis that the financial markets are manipulated by a loose network of big players. I have no hard evidence for that hypothesis. All I know for sure are the following facts:

1.      Markets act in a way that is consistent with manipulation.

2.      The big players have the means and the motive to manipulate markets.

3.      Collusion is nearly impossible to detect if done right.

4.      Some of the most respected firms in the finance world have recently been caught doing unethical and illegal things.

That's the backdrop.

This week, our so-called government announced it has secret evidence that a dictator in the Middle East used chemical weapons on his own citizens.

Pattern Recognition: ON

Here's some more background to keep in mind: The President of the United States recently supported the closing of medical marijuana dispensaries in California and never offered a reason for his change of policy from hands-off to go-to-jail. The new policy wasn't even popular with voters. An observer has to assume money was behind the flip-flop. Maybe it was the private jail industry that wants to keep weed illegal. Maybe it was the booze lobbyists. All we know for sure is that President Obama changed his views on the topic and didn't offer a reason. So he has a credibility problem where money is involved.

Now we citizens of the United States are being told that we might need to lob some bombs at Syria because someone over there allegedly used chemical weapons. Everyone agrees that the limited military action being contemplated won't fix anything. But it certainly will drive down the financial markets.

One entirely plausible explanation for the administration's position on Syria is that it has information we citizens don't have, and shouldn't have, and the government is acting in our best interest. Or maybe they really want to send the world a message that chemical warfare is a red line that can't be crossed. Maybe the whole thing is an excuse to poke Putin in the eye and make his people scurry for cover because we're still tweaked about the Snowden thing.

Any of that is possible.

The problem with believing any of those scenarios is that an equally good explanation for what we observe is that the defense industry, the news industry, and the market manipulators are, once again, moving in lock-step to gin up a war, generate weapons sales, improve news industry profits, and create huge profits for market manipulators.

As a citizen, I am forced to form an opinion using nothing but the questionable "facts" emerging in the news, plus my own guesses and suspicions. How does one form an opinion in that environment?

In a situation with so much at stake and so little reliable information, I default to the following rule: If you don't know which choice is right, pick the one that costs the least to implement. So I don't support bombing Syria; it sounds expensive.

I want to be clear that I'm not recommending a course of action for the United States. I don't have access to the information that the decision-makers have. All I'm saying is that the government has a credibility problem where money is involved, and lots of money is riding on the Syria decision. The whole thing smells like bullshit to me.

 
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Aug 28, 2013
We didn't want to go it alone, so we joined with the Russians to help beat the Germans.
Then the Russians turned on us, so we orchestrated a coup in Iran to help us contain the Russians
Then the Iranians turned on us, so we got the Iraqis to attack Iran
Then the Iraqi's turned on us, so we got the Saudis to stage our bases to attack Iraq
Then a rich clan of Saudis (who also helped us beat the Russians) turned us, so we got the Afghanis to help us attack the rich clan of Saudis

What a perverted, inverted game of dominoes we have been playing. Can we stop now?
 
 
Aug 28, 2013
I don't know why you're so concerned about the administration's response to medical marijuana. You must know what a joke that whole thing is, as you live here in California and can see it firsthand. All you have to do is go to a 'medical marijuana' clinic, pay $150 to a doctor who will then write you a prescription, and voila! You're now a legal pot-smoker.

Not that I'm weighing in on the whole legalized pot thing. It's just that it's so obviously a scam that it would be hard for the administration NOT to do anything about it. So how does that relate to a vast conspiracy to manipulate financial markets? Usually your logical steps are easy to follow: this one has too many dangling participles.

But, I'll try, and then try also to fill in some blanks. Here goes.

Your theory seems to be that President Obama has decided to attack Syria for the following reasons: to increase the profits of weapons manufacturers (after sequestering the military, and thus the weapons manufacturers, out of zillions of dollars); to increase news service ratings and sales; and to make money for the big bucks people (how, you didn't say, but I'll assume it's a bunch of bigwigs short-selling the stock market knowing the president is about to tank it by attacking Syria).

So what did the president do, Scott? Hide the idea of attacking Syria from the rest of us and just phone the big bucks guys? Doesn't look like it to me. As Senator McCain said just yesterday, if he were Bashar al Assad, he'd declare a snow day tomorrow and keep everyone home, since we've been so blatant about broadcasting when we're going to attack.

However, if I see the black helicopters heading toward Walnut Creek today, and tomorrow this web site starts 404'ing, I'll be forced to give your theory a lot more credence.
 
 
Aug 28, 2013
[Back in March I predicted a 20% correction in the stock market sometime in 2013....So I don't support bombing Syria; it sounds expensive.]

Too late.

When you made that prediction you suggested (in that or a related post a few days later) that this could work by having all the other players in this game take a hint from a more powerful player. That said player could say, for example, he intends to start selling once the US is about to perform a military action against a new target. That seems to be happening, and its the best explanation I can think of for the recent sell-off (unless someone can explain to me how a military strike on Syria costs anything except the cost of bombs, fuel and such). Since the sell-off has started I expect it to continue for as long as the players deem profitable regardless of what happens in Syria.
 
 
Aug 28, 2013
Current manipulation of the stock market is a known factor, it's the Federal Reserve and its Quantitative Easing that's doing it (basically the government is inventing money out of thin air and pouring into the stock market). Every time the Fed threatens to end QE, the markets start to drop.

The problem with foreign wars is the US can't be the world's police. The standard criteria is that we invade somewhere if our national interests are at stake. What "national interests" means varies considerably depending on who's in power in Washington. A quick rule of thumb that should be followed is if an ally is invaded, we come to their aid, if a country has internal issues (rebellion/revolution etc.) then we stay out of it. The debate now is whether or not the use of so called illegal weapons, such as chemical weapons, by itself makes a situation worthy of our involvement. Personally I don't think Syria is worth our bother, and I think Obama intended his threat to be a bluff but now has to decide whether to put up or shut up.
 
 
Aug 28, 2013
[The President of the United States recently supported the closing of medical marijuana dispensaries in California and never offered a reason for his change of policy from hands-off to go-to-jail. The new policy wasn't even popular with voters. An observer has to assume money was behind the flip-flop. Maybe it was the private jail industry that wants to keep weed illegal. Maybe it was the booze lobbyists. All we know for sure is that President Obama changed his views on the topic and didn't offer a reason. So he has a credibility problem where money is involved.]

Must we get into this again? I dont doubt this policy change was unpopular with you and the folks you hang with, but there are still large segments of the population that support the banning of marijuana and to me a better explanation for this policy change was Obama was trying to win some of those folks over.
 
 
+17 Rank Up Rank Down
Aug 28, 2013
Normally your "This blog is written for a rational audience..." posts are pretty crazy. This seems disturbingly plausible. Makes me wonder when I became a conspiracy theorist.
 
 
+13 Rank Up Rank Down
Aug 28, 2013
Besides cost, there is another way to evaluate the best course of action in Syria. And that is, will a given action create more refugees?

Right now there are 1.2 million Iraqi refugees living in Syria as a result of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. It is hard to imagine they are better off now than they were under Saddam's regime.

If a US intervention would force more Syrians into Jordan, then it fails the refugee test.

And it is hard to have sympathy with any of the sects who want to exclude people of other beliefs from living next door. We should send all the corporate diversity trainers in America to the Middle East. They have a job to do there.

 
 
Aug 28, 2013
I don't know if the market is being manipulated, at least in a specific and traditional sense. I think QE3 -- used to back risky mortgages and funnel newly-printed dollars into the hands of real estate speculators -- has inflated financial markets. Instead of us feeling inflation in living basics, we're seeing it in the stock market. But it will eventually trickle out... I think the "correction" that we'll all see is 20% inflation, while stocks continue to lead the inflation by several months. In short, I think investment continues to be a smart move.

As for the war in Syria, and the marijuana thing... I too feel the cold, wet fingers of corruption gently guiding those events.
 
 
+24 Rank Up Rank Down
Aug 28, 2013
Absolutely spot-on Scott.

Here in the UK, suddenly its a crisis and they recall parliament. Why? Are any US or UK citizens in danger? Any attacks on either country? Any recent history of either government acting to protect human rights anywhere else?

No, no and no.

I am not sure its about money per se, but it certainly intended to make sure we are looking at Syria, and not somewhere else they don't want us to look.
 
 
 
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