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The interesting thing about arrogance is that it's hard to know when you're doing it. It's a challenge to be confident in your opinion without projecting an air of superiority. Objectively speaking, if you think you have the right answer for a given situation, it follows that anyone who disagrees is a little bit misguided, or ignorant, or just plain dumb. If you aren't a good actor, it's easy to slip from being confident in your opinion to being a pretentious douche bag. I should know - I'm all over that line. Today will be no exception.

I learned I was arrogant when I moved from upstate New York - where people tend to be direct and plainspoken - to California, where honesty is considered rude. In upstate New York, you can say you're good at math and people take it as an objective statement of truth. In California, the nearest you can come to that sort of truth is saying you're bad at spelling, which suggests you might be better at math.

I assume different countries have very different views of what constitutes arrogance. I was thinking about this with respect to Iran and their nuclear program. Ahmadinejad recently said, ""Iran is ready for talks within the framework of equality and justice," and added they "will never enter talks if enemies behave arrogantly."

If you take the view that Iran's leaders are religious nuts who lie about everything and plan to annihilate Israel and themselves in a nuclear war, we can end the discussion here. Maybe it's that simple. But no matter what you assume to be the underlying reality, it still behooves the United States to push for full inspections and leave no stone unturned for a peaceful outcome.

That's what brings me to my hypnosis training. One of the most interesting things I learned in hypnosis class is that people often tell us exactly what they want, but we have trouble hearing it. When Iran talks, all we hear is "lie, lie, lie." But suppose, just for the purpose of discussion, Iran has been telling the absolute and literal truth all along. (I know - it's hard to imagine. Consider it a thought experiment.)

First, Iran says it has no intention to build nuclear weapons, and can see no benefit in doing so. They even have a religious edict expressly forbidding it. Some observers have interpreted that to mean they only intend to build the capability to quickly make some nuclear weapons if they ever change their minds. From Israel's perspective, that's a difference without a distinction. When your very existence is at stake, you treat your enemy's almost-nuclear-weapon exactly the same as a definite nuclear weapon.

When Iran says it won't negotiate with "enemies" who act "arrogantly," that sounds to our ears like "We don't have any intention of negotiating." But what if, as my old hypnosis teacher might instruct, we assume Iran is clearly and literally telling us the way out of this mess? What if the biggest problem is that we present ourselves as enemies, and we act arrogantly, albeit unintentionally? Wouldn't that handcuff the Iranian leadership and require them to be inflexible?

Have we ever tried acting like friends to Iran instead of enemies, or tried acting less arrogantly? And if we were to try that approach, would it give Tehran political cover to open up productive discussions on inspections?

The problem is that there's no way to test the hypothesis without losing forever our hardline stand. And in the end, the hardline stand might be the only thing that works. Further complicating things, our brains are wired to put a higher value on what we have (our consistent and credible hardline stand), than what we might gain by giving it up. Humans are not capable of objectively evaluating options that require giving up something they value, even if the potential payoff is worth it.

But just for discussion, what would it look like if the United States stopped acting arrogantly toward Iran, and started to be more matter-of-fact about our needs while praising the Iranian people for their general awesomeness as a country?

Suppose we say bluntly that we prefer to be friends, but given our histories, and some things that have been said about obliterating Israel, surely they can understand we need to take reasonable precautions against a potential catastrophe. Likewise, we can understand their ambition to have nuclear energy in a time when oil reserves in Iran have likely peaked. To keep the world safe, we need Iran to be our equal partners in bringing down the risk of war. Oh, and by the way, we're sorry about meddling in Iran's internal affairs in the past. We screwed the pooch with the whole Shah situation. That's on us.

If we're being honest, we have to say we're not happy about Iran's role in Iraq, and in particular we resent the Iranian actions that caused American deaths. But realistically, we expect countries to act aggressively to protect their interests in their own backyards. We can understand without forgiving, and get past it.

Iran's support for Hezbollah is still a huge issue. But as a purely practical matter, we could choose to treat it as a separate issue from Iran's nuclear program, even if we believe it's all related. And the chaos in Syria might change the Hezbollah equation indirectly anyway.

The important question boils down to whether or not you believe the root problem is Iran's reckless drive toward nuclear weapons. Is it possible that the real problem is the perceived arrogance of Iran's enemies, which forces Iran to continue on a reckless nuclear path to maintain some semblance of national pride? Put another way, if we started treating Switzerland the way we treat Iran, how long would it take the Swiss to start a nuclear weapons program?

Gandhi would say we should be the change we want to see in the world. Cesar the Dog Whisperer would say the dog only calms down when the owner does. My hypnosis teacher would say people clearly ask for what they want, and all you need to do is listen. All of those guys might be wrong. It might be true, as many of you will be quick to argue, that the Iranian leadership is genuinely insane, and force is the only realistic way to deal with it. My only point is that we've never tried the alternative, and it's unlikely we ever will. In modern times, war is decided by the economics of the news industry, which is another way of saying war is the only option, at least until someone figures out a way to make peace newsworthy.
 
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-2 Rank Up Rank Down
Mar 6, 2012
Give your life to Jesus today
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 22, 2012
O.K. Scott, here is how it is:

Iran is no threat to Israel or any other country, because its military is too weak. The only reason they spout these insane utterings is to gain support under their own population. Iran has 100 airplanes, the newest ones are form the seventies. They have 5 ships. If Israel and the US are ratling sabers, Iran is clapping with kitchen knives.
Starting a war against Iran would support the Iranian government and !$%*!$% their political opponents, unless the government is overthrown and a new government is installed (which has been done so successfully in Iraq and Afghanistan...).
 
 
Feb 20, 2012
I just went through a training course on this very subject. Not international negotiations or dealing with rogue states, but having conversations in a productive way when you are in conflict with another person.

The heart of the training was very much along the lines you suggest. The reason conversations go badly (in their theory) is usually because the people involved feel threats to two fundamental things: their sense of self-worth, or their goals. By using techniques to help the other person understand/trust that you are NOT threatening these things, you create a "safe" environment in which almost any difficult conversation can be had.

It makes a lot of sense when the conflict between two people is superficial, that is, when their "real" goals are in sync. A manager who wants to ship a product earlier and an employee who wants to make sure it is done well might clash, but ultimately they have the same goal, just different paths to get there. If both can be made to realize that, the conflict can be resolved.

However, it breaks down when their "real" goals are not the same. A manager who wants his team to work efficiently is fundamentally at odds with an employee who tries to hold on to a wasteful procedure that allows him to be lazy. You can't resolve the situation the same way, because one of their intents is not positive, in the sense that the employee is deliberately working toward an end that is bad for the company.

The question here is, are Iran's goals and our goals fundamentally the same, or not? If Iran's "real" goals are peaceful coexistence with its neighbors and the right to maintain their sovereign state, and their threatening stance toward Israel is merely a manisfestation of a belief that Israel threatens those things, then I think the answer would be yes, and your approach might work. If, however, Iran sees Israel's very existence as an affront regardless of the security/stability of their own country, then what they want is fundamentally different than what we want, and the situation cannot be resolved through any means except force or the threat of it.

I don't see any evidence that the first scenario describes the reality of the situation.
 
 
Feb 19, 2012
Shadownose:

WWI
WWII
Korean war
Vietnam war
Gulf war 1

Diplomacy really worked in stopping those events... oh wait, it didn't.

The truth is that peaceful diplomacy only works when both sides really want peace. Sometimes one or both sides don't. Sometimes one side only wants to use it to buy time or improve their image while they wait for the right !$%*!$%*!$%*!$ if this is the case, diplomacy is a waste of time and there will be bloodshed sooner or later. So to know if diplomacy is really an option or not, you need to have a spy network in place. You need to know the other side. If not you are guessing and will fail in diplomacy half the time.


Of course, right now, I don't even know if our current president would be willing to use diplomacy to come out ahead if he could. Considering he disgraced our nation by letting Russia of all places put our people into space, he seems to be willing to let our nation be humble to a fault. So if you look at this from my point of view (a president who will literally bow down to other world leaders and another one who says that's still acting too arrogant) you'd be worried about the future. Even if we used diplomacy under these !$%*!$%*!$%*! I don't see it coming out to our favor or in our interests.

 
 
Feb 18, 2012
Your hypothesis would possibly work if it wasn't for the fact that The united states Is already in a war with Iran... The united states has been at war with the iranian government for more than 3 decades. Just because bombs are not falling dosent mean war has not already been commenced.

Our current state of technology has changed the scale at which war is fought. We can now utilize siege tactical principles at a grand scale. Current Technology allows us to be able to surround whole country's. And so With collaboration of other country's we can starve em with Economic sanctions... look at what The United States did to iraq through the whole 90's.

We starved iraq of technology and sustenance. Then after 13 years of weakening their infrastructure. We attacked Iraq with massive amounts of overwhelming force, and then Subsequently grabbing and controlling thousands of square miles of barren desert and air space, near the perimeter borders of Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia...

Look up siege warfare.

Country's are no longer protected by the archaic technology of tangable walls... The worlds new walls are nuclear armed submarines, massive aircraft carriers, tanks, Etc..

We are already at war.

Both country's leaders know this, and so playing nice wouldn't work. The united states wont admit we are at war outside closed doors until bombs start dropping though.

Ofcoarse Irans ayatollah's could just giveup and concede to the siege. But it dosent look like that will happen. They have to much pride...

So force may be what iran really wants.

This conflict is way beyond any US presidential administration...
 
 
Feb 18, 2012
One more thought on the "they're really good people" idea: remember Secretary of State Albright dancing with the late madman Kim Jong Il, as we gave him $5 billion because he said he really, really, no BS was going to stop his nuclear program.

Gee, Scott, I guess sometimes the leaders of countries DON'T mean what they say!!! Who would have thunk it???

Even one more thought: the main problem with our foreign policy vis-a-vis wacko dictators is that we don't have one. Nobody knows how we're going to react in any given situation. What we need to do is say, "If you do X, then we'll do Y," and then we do it. Think of the Red Chinese during the Korean war. They said, "If you cross the Yalu river, we'll send our zillion-person army to attack you."

We though they were bluffing; after all, we had nukes, and they didn't.

They weren't. My supposition is that we'd have a much safer world if we just told dictators what we were going to do, and then did it. Asking Iran for our drone back politely should have been a clue to you, Scott, what not being arrogant gets us.
 
 
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Feb 17, 2012
I've seen Iran's president, on live TV, deny the Holocaust. Are we supposed to believe him about that, too?
 
 
Feb 17, 2012
(rest of the post - read what's below first)

What they like is to let megalomaniacs run free unopposed until they get strong enough to do real damage and make big problems out of small ones. Take a look at the years leading up to 9/11, and how our lack of response emboldened our enemies.

There was an interview with a Holocaust survivor (or alleged Holocaust, from Ahmadinejad's perspective), who was asked what he'd learned from the experience. His reply was to the effect of, when someone says they want to kill you, you should believe them.

I believe them, Scott. But whether I'm right or wrong, I'm going to come down on the side of safety for my people and our allies.
 
 
Feb 17, 2012
You're being selective on which words of Ahmadinejad's you choose to take as a basis for what he really means. You're ignoring the part where he says he wants to wipe Israel off the map. Moreover, what good does talking to him do, if he's not willing to give up his ambitions to have nuclear weapons?

Here's how such talks would go. Us (hat in hand without arrogance): "We'd really like you to stop making nukes, and agree to on-site inspections." Them (straightforward without arrogance): "No." So how much further along would those talks get us?

You seem to imply your hat-in-hand appeasment attitude has never been tried. You're wrong. Have you ever heard of Neville Chamberlain, and "Peace in our time?" Your assumption is that Ahmadinejad is just a really reasonable guy with no ambitions to create the new caliphate nor see the return of the twelfth Imam. If you're right, we are missing an opportunity. If you're wrong, then Israel gets nuked, and we possibly see the start of World War III.

If it's the latter, then what do you say, Scott? Saying, "Gosh, I guess I was wrong" won't cut it. Consider that, rather than being a cartoonist, you actually had responsibility for the safety and security of your country. You know that talking won't hurt, but you also know that if you take the Chamberlain approach, you may doom your country and Iran to millions dead and a huge war. What's the easiest and most direct way to minimize casualties while maximizing the chance that their people continue to live?

Some people believe that some of those on the left don't like war. That isn't true. What they don't like is a small, limited military action to remove a threat when it's small. What they like is to let megalomaniacs
 
 
Feb 17, 2012
You know what they say: "Never judge a man until you've walked a mile in his shoes".

I think Iran and Israel could build a foundation of trust if they worked to tolerate the others' religion. A good way to do that would be an annual "Swap God Day", where the Isrealis would all worship Allah for just one day, and all the Iranians would worship Yahweh for one day.

If the Orthodox Jews could bow down on a rug and pray to Mecca (for just one day), they would certainly have "gone a mile in those shoes". Likewise, if the Imams could just chant the Tora for one day in front of the Wailing Wall (or some facsimile wall), think of how much more in tune they'd be the next time there was trouble between their countries.

Now if by chance there were deaths on that day, I suppose some souls on both sides would go straight to hell, but the number would be small; and by golly, isn't that a small price to pay for making new friends?

 
 
0 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 17, 2012
The media's primary mission seems to be to distract us from what's really going on.
Don't fall for it. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.



Oh, and next election, vote out all congressional incumbents, regardless of party, voting record,
apparent "good" being done. You will never know the truth, deal with it.
 
 
Feb 17, 2012
I agree with what you are saying. I only have two concerns:

1. I saw Obama's election and subsequent overtures to the middle east (aka "the world apology tour") as his attempt to be less arrogant (and I supported that). That was Iran's opening. They chose not to take it. Why would things be different now?

2. What does "acting less arrogantly mean?" What is it we aren't supposed to do anymore? I don't think you build peace on vagueness. Or at least, it's a lot more difficult.
 
 
Feb 17, 2012
Dingbat:
"Who decides what is a framework of equality and justice?"

That's my main concern. For a lot of the radical islamic world, justice means depriving the Jewish people of their ancestral homeland one way or another. If you take the chronology of the bible with even a grain of truth, the Jewish people can trace their origins to that area before they went to egypt. Before they even had the 10 commandments. That's a long time. Islam didn't even show up until what, 600 ad or so?

As an aside, that question is also a major point of contention within US politics as well. Conservatives and progressives have a vastly different opinion on what justice is.


TheShadowNose:
"If you can't be optimistic, you really can't be in the diplomat business. That doesn't mean that you can't acknowledge reality, just make sure that you're taking the same amount of risk as the other guy."

Well, from our perspective, the US is risking genocide of an ally and possible loss of access to the Holy Land of the predominate US religion if we are wrong. Is Iran risking the same amount?


Here's the thing with Iran: they want to be an empire. They want to control the Middle East. The want to be the fourth reich, for lack of a better term. Iran (Persia) has been like that since biblical times.

Saddam was afraid of them. After we got rid of him, they were the ones arming and training the terrorists over in Iraq. What happened after the US pulled out? Violence (read trying to gain control over Iraq) came back. Saudi Arabia is worried about them. I wouldn't be surprised if all of the nations around Israel are puppet states of them.
 
 
Feb 17, 2012
@Drowlord - I agree. To put it another way, "Thats just one thing that makes them such a different enemy. They just think different about everything." (Ron Paul)

@bedouin1990 - You come close to what I understand is a real challenge when negotiating with Iran. Who is in power, the president or the clergy? With whom do you negotiate when the signals are mixed?

And Scott - I smiled about your New York vs. California comparison of directness. So true, but I'd (arrogantly) frame it more generally as an east coast vs. west coast difference.


 
 
Feb 17, 2012
I have employed just this tactic both as a consultant and in customer service. As you noted, both ideological sides are crazy from a certain perspective. I learned that if I give the most misguided, rabid, badger-humping sociopath everything they want in a discussion, then when they fail to meet my corresponding terms, they are the bad guy. I then have the moral high ground to do whatever I want to them, because they are obviously crazy.
 
 
+4 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 17, 2012
You say we haven't tried this. Did you miss Obama's Global Apology Tour his first year during which he bowed low to all of our enemies and forsook our allies? He tried unclenching the fist, reaching out, and got his fingers burned.

I suspect you'll say that wasn't enough, but if you look at how these guys operate, I find it hard to believe that the problem is really just that we don't know how to play nice with strangers. I'm not suggesting for a minute that our policies have all been good, but just look at what they do to their own people - especially their women.
 
 
+5 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 17, 2012
I would love to see a longer post on just the last sentence. That idea is one I've thought for quite sometime. When Bush ran against Gore and I watched the coverage of it the only conclusion I could come to was that the media wanted chaos. Are our potential leaders really so evenly matched that after weeks of debate and presentation of ideas it is still basically a dead heat? If not what force moves the public so that so many political contests are (or appear to be) even up till the end.

Or I'm just being tweaked to reveal what level of conspiracy I believe in.
 
 
+14 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 17, 2012
I remember reading an article several months ago about how everything we know about psychology is wrong. This is, primarily, because over 90% of all psychological studies ever performed were done in the USA. The USA, having a smallish percent of the world population (like 5%) are fabulously wealthy, the dominant world power, consumer of most of the world's energy, and benefit from huge amounts of labor done in other countries, mostly for our entertainment. We have very extreme perspectives and weird priorities when compared with people everywhere else in the world. For starters, we're obsessed with entertainment and personal freedoms, while most of the world is primarily concerned with food and safety.

Since we study Americans, and not normal humans in normal conditions, our understanding of human thought, human priority, human interaction, psychology, sociology, and politics are all pretty useless beyond our borders.
 
 
Feb 17, 2012
Interesting. It seems to me that the USA has the ultimate flexibility to play whatever role it wants to play in the world.

One option would be to have a stance similar to China - focused on economic growth, generally uninvolved in conflicts out of its region, but too big and powerful for anyone to consider attacking it.

A second option would be to have a stance similar to Israel - stronger militarily than all its adversaries, but still always in getting in dustups with one rival or another, and occassionally assisinating troublesome individuals.

In Israel's case, they were dealt that hand and have no choice. In America's case, I wonder why we choose to emulate them rather than China

(Note, I am only referring to China's foreign policy stance, not their general approach to government)

 
 
+15 Rank Up Rank Down
Feb 17, 2012
Regardless of what bloviating politicians are spouting in public, you can be sure there is an army of diplomats slithering and sliding under the doors of power probably using the very ideas you suggest.

Also Switzerland does not need a nuclear program. If you upset them they will just burn your money.
 
 
 
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