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I plan to start hoarding supplies soon. There should be some big riots after the election. Here's a sequence of events and conditions that would lead to rioting. Do you see anything on the list that isn't likely?
  1. The economy stays bad for a another month
  2. Obama has a clear lead in the polls before election day
  3. McCain wins anyway. While the real reason for the polling discrepancy will be racism, there will be a widespread belief that the election was rigged. And there will be plenty of real and imagined evidence that it was.
  4. Riots will break out, partly out of genuine anger, partly to get that new flat screen TV.

We know the country can get past one suspicious Presidential election, because it did exactly that with Gore versus Bush. But two in a row would turn even normal citizens into conspiracy theorists. Given the anxiety over the economy, concerns about abortion rights, and the continuing wars, you have a perfect storm for revolution.

Interestingly, the only person who could stop the riots would be Obama himself.

 
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-2 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
jasmineaphrael, the problem with ACORN is in the mail in ballots, so they could still get away with voter fraud. No photo ID is required for those, just a stamp.

Given the problem of the last 2 elections (whether fixed or not) and that both races went to Bush, I would hazard a guess that someone is using ACORN to make sure Obama wins. It could be totally accidental like you are saying, but this is the most polarized election that I can recall in American history. So many people are saying the world will figuratively end if the other is elected (Obama and socialism, McCain and war), that I can see how there would be people trying to sway the election one way or another. It's a sad commentary on the American psyche when fear mongering is not only the accepted way to campaign, but that a large percentage of people actually buy into it.

VOTE EM ALL OUT!
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
1. ACORN wasn't getting paid to submit fake ballots. Their hired people made up the ballots because they were often paid by registration, and submitted them to ACORN to increase their own salaries. ACORN was then required by law to submit every registration they had, no matter how fishy - a law that exists to prevent people discarding registrations from opposing political parties - so they sorted the fishy ones separately for the election officials' convenience in declaring them invalid. The registrations would have been unable to vote even if declared legitimate - the HAVA requires all new voters to present proof of photo ID.

2. Americans don't riot anymore - we're too complacent. 4 year election gaps are just short enough to calm us and get us to wait and trust in democracy. In addition, the media has a strong bias against protests - they haven't covered almost all the protests against the war and bush. Without media coverage, riots don't spread even if they do start.
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
Though I'm pretty sure Obama is going to win, I've also thought through a couple of "Bradley effect" scenarios. Should McCain pull off a suprise, against all odds and polls win - an occurrence that I give a possibility of about 30% - racism will undoubtedly play a role. But I am fairly certain that, in addition to racism, there will be a collorary effect at play - the tendency of people to state a politically correct, socially acceptable opinion rather than what they actually feel. I would imagine some small but perhaps significant number of McCain supporters feel like supporting Obama is the more progressive approach, and when pressed to give their opinion to someone not in their circle of trusted confidents, state that they suppport Obama.
 
 
-2 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
Scott, I am observing the elections from Moscow, Russia. I respect all the nations, skin colors, I am not a racist.

But knowing US history a bit I can't believe a black man is able to become a president in such racist country as US. Ray Charles couldn't give performaces to black people in Georgia till the middle of 80s...

McCain's view on the world (not only US!!) future will lead to more military politics, continuing killing civilians in Iraq, Afganistan and South Ossetia. I believe it can also lead to world war 3 with US, Russia and China as a participants. Nobody will win ever in such a war.

So I wish Obama won the elections. He seems to be a 'true' man. That would be the only solution for US to start think not only about 'democracy' but about 2.5 thousand civilian people who have already died in Afganistan since the beginning of 2008 because of US airforce 'democracy couriers'.

But I also remember a movie 'countdown' with kevin spacey....
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
And if he IS elected president, some bigot will assassinate him and then we will have so many riots there will be martial law.
 
 
-1 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
If only you had posted this 3 days ago, I might have registered to vote.

I'm not really interested in either canidate (McCain in 2000 was much more intriuging as a canidate than in 2008) But I'm all about the rioting. If I had known a vote for McCain is a vote for rioting, I would have registered before the Mass. Cut off date... not that my vote would have counted for anything in Mass., but it would have been nice to tell the grandkids I voted for the wrong guy in 2008 and played a small part in the race riots of 2008 that eventualy lead to the seccesion of the coasts.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
So, if Obama looses despite the 100% accuracy of the polls,
there will be riots in the street.

But if McCain looses, even tho ACORN has registered 105% of the population,
you have no fear of riots.

What does that tell you about the voters ?
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
3. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/bradley effect
Here's some good discussion of the Bradley Effect and whether it is in play this election (it appears not to be, based on the Primaries). If you aren't reading fivethirtyeight.com and electoral-vote.com you might want to because they offer up all the raw data of the polls and offer commentary on which are outliers, etc. And they pay attention to the electoral votes rather than to the popular vote.

4. I think we can look to the people who are edging towards riots by yelling violent and hateful things at campaign rallies to see whether or not conservatives are capable of rioting. They are giving us indications that they are. I assume liberals would riot if Obama does not won and...based on the numbers above (I know, its ridiculous but I'm relying on data!) it would seem to be rigged if he didn't win. i assume the riots would look different and be in different parts of the country. Here in Oakland, CA I can't imagine a riot if McCain loses.

Is a third party vote a way to vote for rioters without specifically endorsing any rioting strategy?
 
 
+4 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
Glad I live out in the country in the middle of nowhere now! And to think, before the elections, my biggest gripe was that I can't get cable internet and have to rely on Alltel's Wireless Dialup services...

Some of you take blogging way too seriously. How do you sleep at night? Really, how do you do it? I imagine you lay in bed, screaming at yourself, "WHY DON'T THEY UNDERSTAND?!" - it must make life very hectic. Clearly this is a joking blog - Really? The creator of Dilbert has a humor blog? Go on! No, seriously - and it's obvious that he's trying to either bait funny replies, or impassioned speeches (like this one!)

It's just surprizing to see that so few people here can come up with anything even halfway amusing to read. I'm not really that funny, but at least I try.

I think the biggest thing likely to cause a riot about the election is that people won't have two candidates to compare during debates. They'll be forced to deal with only a single president, and the lack of controversy in their lives will make them go insane and start busting stuff up without regard for the time-honored practice of looting.

Maybe we can rely on one of our dear celebrities to pick up the torch to keep this nation in check by doing something sublimely stupid. We NEED you, Britney Spears! Save us from ourselves!
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
Interestingly, the only person who could stop the riots would be Obama himself ?

Did you mean Obama should just stop campaigning and call it quits now ? Won't riots start earlier than otherwise ?
 
 
+2 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
Riots are so not revolution. Riots are devolution. All they do is underscore how utterly pwned the rioters are.

Stock up & lock up folks. It's going to be a helluva century & this is only the beginning. . . .
 
 
-5 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
- not voting for a black guy because he is black is racist?
- voting for a black guy because he is black is not racist?

the reason the polls show Obama is ahead is because only hip people take the poll
while massive ordinary conservatives dont take any poll but will go vote for McCain.
It's not a rigged election.

 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
tk421mp et al. yeah, that is a great argument. either vote for my canidate or I'll riot. A few things that could cause him to lose is more people coming to their senses and realizing just what a marxist he is. Believe it or not some people like living in America because it isn't communist or socialist.
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
I think you are right Scott.
A recent Newsweek article
http://www.newsweek.com/id/161214
titled "What if Obama Loses"
describes how African Americans have put all their hope of the future in this one election.
one quote was "Because for him to come this far and lose will be just shady and a slap in black people's faces. I know there is already talk about protests and stuff if he loses, and I'm down for that."

I worried that instead of being a new change to an old system (from either party) that instead it would become "Vote for the first black president, or vote against the first black president!"

I would like to think our voting is based on who will be best for the country, but I tell you...
I dont wanna tell my grandkids that I voted for the white guy...
 
 
+2 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
Hey Scott,

I had a slightly similar - but different - theory along these same lines as well!

My theory - continued and worsening economic chaos. The American people get fed up and have ever-larger demonstrations. Some demonstrations get out of control / riots ensue. The government declares martial law & postpones / cancels the election.

Honestly, I don't expect this to happen, though. I don't think Americans are quite up to Europeans in their willingness to hit the streets and demonstrate, and I don't think the Bush administration would go quite so far as declaring martial law! But, hey, it's a fun theory.
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
Oh please ! JoshP please stop with the "France" argument. Please read reports, statistics and update your french knowledge and you'll understand we aren't so different. Once again thanks for your help during both WW please remember de Gaulle is dead for a while and let's be friends for challenging the XXI st century together. If we don't some will do it and crush our way of life !

Anyway I'm not American and I don't know about basic US citizen problems but I think because of (or thanks to) economical crisis people will be much more concentrated in "surviving" than in riotting a large scale.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Oct 17, 2008
scott, you seem to be impying that the republicans deal in more election fraud than democrats and that simply doesn't pass the sniff test. Paying any attention at all will show you ACORN (heavily invested in an Obama win) are engaging in massive fraud. as for the election that you infer was stolen by the republican, do a little follow up to the headlines. the media, print and tv, got together and did their own recount of florida (all of it) and found that there was no miscounting. but that story was buried. And as for the supreme court decision on the subject, what they did was prevent gore from having just certain districts recounted. the bush campaign agreed to a total recount and he didn't want that. things that make you go hmmmm
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
Great plan Scott, by the way, where do you live? And where are these TV you speak of?

Just kidding.

But at least we have someone to blame now, after all, it was probably your contribution to McCain that let them reach their goal of fixing the election.

By the way, when does the next bus leave for Canada?
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
Actually, wouldn't Obama be winning in the polls (and then losing) have more to do with the Bradley effect (say you'll vote for a minority candidate so the pollster doesn't even THINK that you're racist) than racism?

Also, I have tons of friends who won't be voting for Obama. None of us are racist, we just disagree with him on most/all things. If Obama was white, we'd still disagree with him. It's his views, not his skin.
 
 
Oct 17, 2008
"there will be a widespread belief that the election was rigged.And there will be plenty of real and imagined evidence that it was." - How true, with ACORN and 40,000 newly registered convict felon in Florida it will be a circus. My deceased wife is still on the voting rolls and voted before I did during the primary. Local poll worker looked at me like I was crazy when I pointed out that she had been for over three years. No idea is she voted Democrate or Republican.

Just waiting for the fun to begin November 4th.
 
 
 
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