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Sep 18, 2009 General Nonsense |
As regular readers know, I wonder if the economy is being manipulated by a small group of people who make vast fortunes by investing ahead of the swings. And if there isn't any major manipulation happening, the economy certainly acts that way.

You might have noticed that there are times, such as now, when the stock market is marching straight up and there is a suspicious lack of bad news. Oh, don't get me wrong - there is plenty of bad news out there if the media wants to focus on it. But for some reason (conspiracy) there is more emphasis on the good. That means something big and bad is in the pipeline to create the next unnecessary panic. The conspirators are tamping down on the smaller bad news stories to get the biggest bang out of the panic they intend to create. That's what my spider sense is telling me is happening now.

Perhaps the Dow will continue to 10,000, but the next big shock will be in the downward direction. I predict stories about some sort of financial crisis that you never even heard of, before the end of the year. And I predict it will drive the market down 20%.

And then Special Forces will find and kill Bin Laden, driving the market back up to new highs. You and I will find ways to lose money during these swings, by panicking and selling at the wrong times. The manipulators will double their money.

Disclaimer: Don't take investment advice from cartoonists, especially if it includes a reference to spider senses.

 
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Sep 25, 2009
after the way the lapdogs of the medias never ever said anything bad about anything the neo-con con did to the economy i weep at the way they look for 'bad economy stories when it's a Republican'. what world do you live in. its not the one we live in. you are all nuts and your mad at the rest of us
 
 
Sep 22, 2009
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2009/09/13/why_capitalism_fails/?page=full
Minsky is still right!
 
 
-1 Rank Up Rank Down
Sep 21, 2009
Scott & everyone,

Watch the 9/4/2009 episode of Wealth Track. http://wealthtrack.com/

There are 2 segments of particular interest. "Your money and your brain". & "Black swans". Very good show.

-Mark
 
 
Sep 21, 2009
I think pharmaceuticals companies (or the manipulators above) have created a panic with the swine flu to force governments to buy useless medicine from them. Just compare that "pandemic" to other "ordinary" diseases like influenza. A lot more people die from other diseases, yet the focus is on this new one. And why ? Look a those who make money with this.
 
 
Sep 21, 2009
I thought you'd be interested in this article about the Bilderberg Club, claimed to be a group of the worlds most wealthy and influential people.

http://www.michaeljournal.org/bilder.htm

It makes the recent cartoons about Dogberts collusion with other CEOs even more believable!

 
 
Sep 21, 2009
Depends on what your pet conspiracies are. Those of us who are conservative politics wonks tend to think it's merely that the major media looks for good economy stories when there's a Democrat in power and bad economy stories when it's a Republican. Right about now they are looking for ways to make us believe that Obama has "saved" us from the horrors that Bush "created".
 
 
Sep 20, 2009
You're overlooking (gee, there's a first) that the basics behind the ultimate rise or fall of the stock market is the rise or fall in the profits of individual companies. If someone makes big investments in a short position just prior to a crisis, their transactions are reviewed with a fine-toothed comb, and they could very well go to jail. Otherwise, they're just trying to guess what's going to happen - a thing called market timing.

Overall, there has never been a seven-year period including the Great Depression when the stock market didn't make at least a 7% return - until the period from 2001-2008, and that's a one-time shot. So ultimately, if you bet on market timing, it only takes one bad move to wipe out all your gains, so you have to be right every time, and no one is. However, if you take a long term approach to investing, you'll come out ahead virtually every time, over the long haul. Big investors know this, too.

There are also economies of scale that you run into when investing. Large fund managers run into this all the time. They get so much money in their funds that they have to buy stocks they don't really want, because there are rules against a single fund owning more than a certain percentage (I can't remember exactly, but it is around 5-7% of the outstanding stock) without triggering a possible takeover bid. So you end up in the same place, unable to own enough without owning the company to really make a killing.

Again, it doesn't matter how much correction happens, because the market will ultimately recover. If people/funds dump their stocks, causing the market to drop, they can only do it once - then they have nothing left to sell. They park their money until the stock market climbs back up, which will happen because the stocks are valued so low that investors see what a bargain they are, and supply and demand causes prices to rise. Then the money comes back out of money markets and back into the market again, causing prices to go up even more. That's what's happening now.

So folks, as Scott says, don't take investment advice from a cartoonist. If the market drops by 20%, don't sell, because you'll be selling too late. You'll then wait until the market recovers, and then buy back in when the prices have already gone up. This is called, "selling low and buying high," and is a great way to lose oodles in the market.

Morningstar has begun reporting not only a fund's performance, but also the real return to the fund's clients. They do this by taking the buys and sells and averaging them together over a period. So, say, fund 'X' has a six-percent gain in a 12-month period. But, because it varied from minus 5% to plus 11%, many of its investors sold when it was down and bought when it went back up, making the actual return to the investor, say, one percent in the same period. And guess what: that's the REAL return in that period, since those holding on to the funds (neither buying nor selling) didn't see any real losses or gains - those were all on paper. Makes good sense to have a balanced portfolio and ignore the momentary ups and downs, doesn't it?

The reason you are seeing no bad news reported is simple: Obama's approval rating is dropping, and the press wants to shore him up because they're in his camp. Bad news now would further negatively impact Obama's numbers, and the press doesn't want that to happen. It has nothing to do with George Soros, et. al. manipulating the news media to report good news in preparation for shorting everything in sight prior to the big disaster.

If Scott really wanted to look at where his Illuminati have a shot at making big hunks of money, he's looking in the wrong place. It's not in the private business sector, Scott. It's in international currency trading. Old George Soros made oodles, I seem to recall, when his manipulations appear to have caused the British Pound to take a dive. There's a real good reason not to become a currency trader - old George will getcha. Now, which politician did old George fund and support in the last election? Hint: it wasn't Hillary, and it wasn't McCain.

I wonder, if something bad happens and George profits from it, who might just give him a heads-up? Interesting thought, for sure.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Sep 20, 2009
The market goes from panic to most companies beating earnings this year. Even the slightly bad news was twisted into a positive story during this last big rally.

Dogbert should be on a conference call telling the analysts they expect to report $0.21 cents earnings while he is cooking the books in a big frying pan. Then later Dogbert can report $0.60 cents earnings during the earnings conference call.

 
 
Sep 20, 2009
Do you ever make brilliant mental connections like this, get it all figured out, and then worry that you might be becoming paranoid schizophrenic or something? I do sometimes.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Sep 20, 2009
"Will find and kill Bin Laden?"

Nope. Will never happen.

And, for the same reasons Scott suspects the Stock Market manipulated by a sinister band of Investors: There's too much money tied up in it.

Too much money is attached to the name "Bin Laden". I don't mean the Bin Laden Family (although they are -- and remain still despite 1/2 of them being involved in terrorism in one form or another -- filthy rich.)

No, I mean Bin Laden's value to the good 'ole U.S. Govt. Think about how much money is being pumped into the FBI, CIA, DIA, Military, Local Law Enforcement, Homeland Security, etc. It's a literal gravy train that's tied to Osama Bin Laden STAYING ALIVE. If he's dead, there will be no reason for these Alphabet-Agencies to keep receiving vast sums of money, right? It's in their best interests to KEEP HIM ALIVE AND AT LARGE.

Conspiracy? Maybe. It's certainly worth a good muck-raking reporter looking into. And if it is a conspiracy based upon budgets, it's a disgrace to our Soldiers who have been played as pawns.

Don't believe me? How often have you heard since 9/11 the money government/military/investigative agencies say, "Well, Senator, if we don't get this new whiz-bang system, Bin Laden will get us!" or "Bin Laden is still loose, Senator, and he will come and shave our cats if we don't have nuclear-powered investigative pencils costing $5 million a piece."

I jest, but still, you get the idea. And I know you have heard it. If you haven't, you will listen a little closer now.

As an aside, I currently work with Army personnel, some of whom are Special Forces. They had Bin Laden in Tora Bora. He was as good as dead and captured. However....every time they asked for permission to get him, they were denied. Air strike? Nope. Artillery? Nope. Special Night Mission? Nope. The SF teams were tracking him by radio, could hear him on the radio, and pinpoint his location by triangulation. They wanted to get him, as any red-blooded American Soldier would. However...

The powers-that-be higher up in the dark halls of governance had decreed that Bin Laden was not to be touched. The rest as say, is History. As we know, he "escaped". Or rather, was let go.

Too many agencies have too much money tied up in Bin Laden to see him killed. As I said, it will never happen.

 
 
0 Rank Up Rank Down
Sep 20, 2009
Don't you just love the recent earnings season where most companies beat earnings? The companies whisper a lower number of expected earnings to the analysts that they know they will beat. Earnings were down across the board from the previous earnings a year earlier but Wall Street played the game of most companies beat the low earnings estimates.

Oh no it's not manipulated at all because the Devil sitting in the CEO chair told me everything was just fine and that they had beat a low earnings estimate. There was a bonus involved for the Devil even at those companies with negative earnings.

It should be a law that once a publicly held company reports negative earnings then no member of management is paid over $100,000 per year and there are zero bonuses or other forms of compensation until the company is profitable again for failure to deliver profits to shareholders.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Sep 19, 2009
Scott,

As soon as you start being successfull in stock trading, I will start following your advice.

In the mean time, the best option will be: don't take advice from stock market experts.
 
 
-1 Rank Up Rank Down
Sep 19, 2009
Right before I got on your blog, I was just on one of the major "news" websites scratching my head because the top headline was some panamanian teens who took photos of a "mystery creature" (that looked like a hairless sloth)...buried about 12 headlines beneath the obvious hoax was a puff piece about terrorist threats against Germany's election.

I guess when they start leading slow new days with fake photos of stranded polar bears again, its time to sell my stock and buy gold (I should have enough for a whole tooth by then).
 
 
-1 Rank Up Rank Down
Sep 19, 2009
They will never find me, Infidel!
 
 
Sep 19, 2009
Easy, it's driven by Goldman:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/29127316/the_great_american_bubble_machine
 
 
Sep 19, 2009
"..especially if it includes a reference to spider senses."
Too bad we're all males in the Latrodectus hesperus species.
 
 
Sep 19, 2009
"when the stock market is marching straight up and there is a suspicious lack of bad news."

No doubt there are people who manipulate the news, but maybe much of this happens due to how journalists work, without there having to be any conspiracy.

Every day when the market goes up, journalists seek reasons to explain the rise; therefore printing the good news. When the market goes down, to explain the decline, journalists print the bad news.

In a rising market, up days will outnumber bad days, giving a preponderous of good news, which acts as a self-fulfilling prophesy and pushes up the market still further.
 
 
Sep 18, 2009
The stock market is like a cassino, it will always be the house that wins over the long term as the game is rigged in it's favour. A nice ongoing 10% whatever happens. There are always enough suckers to get money off.
Of course the market is rigged in the favour of the wealthy and powerful and big finance houses.
The current stock market makes no sense with the high unemployment and lack of real activity out there also consider why a lot of large stockholders including CEO's are selling there share they know the real situation and it's not good for the next 10 years.
Also look at the price of Gas people just aren't buying so why so high it really should be around $1.30 a gallon what happened to supply and demand.
So off to my bunker for the coming financial apocalypse.
 
 
+1 Rank Up Rank Down
Sep 18, 2009
The Forbes 400 were worth a total of $2.59 Trillion in 2007. Even after losing their pants in 2008, they are still richer than the bottom 40% of the human race. The economy is too big to be gamed for very long unless a considerable portion of these people are involved. US household net worth rose by $2 Trillion in the second quarter of 2009.
 
 
-2 Rank Up Rank Down
Sep 18, 2009
Tuesday, November 2, 2010.

In the United States, Election Day for federal offices occurs. Many currently elected members (conspirators?) in both bodies of congress are up for re-election -- or not.

Is ONE YEAR enough time -- or is it even possible -- for them to pump up incredibly low public approval numbers while governing the country into another huge downward swing in the economy?

GIVE ME A MOMENT a lifestyle
www.givemeamomentblog.blogspot.com

..
 
 
 
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