When I graduated and was looking for my first job, human resources folks couldn't figure out how to say anything else besides, "Do you have any experience?"
Now that I'm old enough to actually have some, well, you fill in the blank.
Barry while the calculation might be correct (am to lazy, read inept to check it) the conclusion is wrong.
Just because the odds are low doesn't mean it won't happen. I could win the lottery while the odds state I probably shouldn't win if I buy a 100 lottery tickets each drawing for the next 50 years. Yet there is a chance I will win it on my next ticket.
Conclusion; just because the odds are low it does't mean it won't/can't happen. Therefor your entire argument is void and kind off pointless...
... though writing this down amused for me about a minute so not entirely pointless I guess. ;p