@vote1ratbert, The event *causing* death and the event *causing* promotion are (reasonably considered to be) independent, and only connected *after* one of them occurs. It doesn't matter for the chance of "avoiding him" which one occurs first. So my calculation is correct.
I did laugh at the "positive or negative dependency", however, and voted you up.
I think you also may "need to review your probability math".
You're calculating the probabilities of dying, and being promoted as independent events.
I'm pretty sure there is a dependency between being dead(or otherwise) and getting promoted. Whether it's a positive correlation, or negative correlation in this company, I'm not really sure. We need to gather more data.
That 60% chance of dying in a workplace accident reminds me of the guy that brought in the drugstore quality extension cord so he could plug in his coffee pot, microwave and toaster oven on the same outlet. His cry, 'What the ****' became office legend.